COMPOSITE MACRO ETF WEEKLY ANALYTICS (5/14/2016)

COMPOSITE MACRO ETF WEEKLY ANALYTICS (5/14/2016)

NOTABLE OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS:

  • The healthcare composite has been a bottom 3 performer across all time frames. 
  • The Oil+Gas composite has been strong recently as a top 3 performer L/63, L/21, and L/10 days.
  • The Large Cap composite is essentially unchanged over the L/252 and L/126 days.
  • PMM has continued to outperform. The long gold and gold producers trade has been the trade of the year.
  • PMM is up 60% (log returns) over L/126 days!
  • An anecdotal observation: When every composite is all positive(negative) returns over the L/63 days or less, there has been a tendency for the markets to mean revert. Notice the return range compression for both best/worst performers over L/10 days. Seems like there is either a lack of catalysts or indecision among market participants. 
Read More

COMPOSITE MACRO ETF WEEKLY ANALYTICS (4/30/2016)

COMPOSITE MACRO ETF WEEKLY ANALYTICS (4/30/2016)

NOTABLE OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS:

  • The explosive performance of the Precious Metals Miners (PMM) and Precious Metals (PM) composites this year makes me consider that market participants are expecting "unexpected" inflation.
  • The "unexpected" inflation theory is supported by the outperformance of the Oil/Gas and Energy composites over the L/63, L/21, and L/10 trading days.
  • Composite performance over the L/63 trading days is intriguing. It is the only time frame in which none of the composites had negative performance.
  • I still find it somewhat surprising that the Correlation Clustermap (Dendrogram) shows that T-Bonds, PMM, PM are closely correlated with each other offering diversification vs the other composites from the L/126 days onwards. 
Read More

COMPOSITE MACRO ETF WEEKLY ANALYTICS (4/17/2016)

COMPOSITE MACRO ETF WEEKLY ANALYTICS (4/17/2016)

NOTABLE OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS:

  • The Precious Metals Miners composite (PMM) has been a top 3 performer in all timeframes. More research is needed to determine the catalyst if any exists. However the strength of the PMM composite performance indicates there is some long-term conviction behind the buying.
Read More

COMPOSITE MACRO ETF WEEKLY ANALYTICS (4/09/2016)

COMPOSITE MACRO ETF WEEKLY ANALYTICS (4/09/2016)

Notable Observations and Trends:

  • L/252 days the top 4 performing composites have a risk-off/defensive 'tilt': (1) Utilities (2) Telecom (3) T-Bond (4) Precious Metals Miners (PMM).
  • L/252 and L/126 the Large Cap composite is almost unchanged at ~1% and ~2% respectively. 
  • L/252 the correlation clustermap (dendrogram) groups T-Bond, Bonds, Precious Metals (PM), and PMM as most closely correlated. Based on the data this grouping has offered the most diversification vs the remaining composites.
  • YTD L/71 days the top 3 performers are PMM, PM, and Utilities. PMM is trending strongly over the period gaining over 43%.
  • L/21 and L/10 days Healthcare, PMM, and real estate have been the strongest performers. 
  • Financials appear to be trending negatively over the L/71, L/21 and L/10 days. The composite has been a bottom 3 performer across timeframes. This is likely related to the Fed signaling the pace of interest rate increases should be slower than expected. 
Read More