In previous blog posts, I've discussed my bearish stance on the Canadian economy as expressed through ( EWC, FXC ) due to the collapse in global oil prices. My original hypothesis was Canada is a resource/energy based economy and declining oil prices would make the 'expensive' oil produced in the oil sands less attractive economically from a producer/investment standpoint. Let's explore that thesis a little more and see if it's validated by facts.
Alberta, Canada contains the 'oil sands' deposits and had an estimated contribution of ~18% to Canadian GDP in 2013 - statcan.gc.ca via wikipedia
According to albertacanada.com, energy is ~23% of Alberta's GDP, and the ancillary sector of construction is ~11%. Back of the envelope calculations tell us that ~34% of Alberta's 18% Canadian GDP contribution is energy related. In other words ~6% of Canadian GDP is exposed to Alberta's energy sector.
$1 per barrel drop in the price of Alberta's oil over 12 months = $215 million less in revenue - alberta.ca
In October of 2014 Bloomberg news reported that Alberta's budget forecast was based on oil prices at $97 a barrel. As of this writing the spot price of WTI crude is $51! That's a $46 gap, or ~47% drop. If crude averages ~$50 a barrel over 12 months that's an estimated ~$9.9B drop in provincial revenues. That will certainly blow holes in budgets and earnings expectations across the board.
According to a RBC March 2014 provincial economic outlook Alberta was forecast to post the largest real GDP gains of any province for 2014 and 2015. I think that forecast will have to be altered drastically if it hasn't already. As of October 2014, BMO has already slashed Alberta's growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.3%. This might be revised further as the oil drop continues.
How important is Alberta to Canada's economy? theglobeandmail.com reports:
Civeo Corp. ( CVEO ) lost 53% of it's value on Dec. 29 after announcing a suspension of its dividend and closing sites - bloomberg.com
Why should you care?
( CVEO ) is on the front lines of Canadian oil sands production and announced it would cut staff in Canada by 30% and in the US by 45%. CapEX will drop ~78%! This is telling me that the fallout from the collapsing oil prices has only begun as capital budgets get cut across the board.
Several oil majors have already cut or suspended major oil sands projects. Reportedly there is a tendency towards significant cost overruns for large scale oil sands production projects, that when paired with declining oil prices, make projects economically impractical.
That's a pretty grim outlook moving forward, however there are risks to this thesis that must be noted and factored into any trade or investment decision.
- As oil price declines oil consuming provinces like Ontario stand to benefit
- Oil prices in conjunction with a declining ( CAD ) make Canadian exports (including energy) cheaper for international buyers (primarily the U.S.), which is likely to offset some of the declining domestic economic activity
- If Canadian exports rise enough to offset the domestic energy fallout ( EWC ) may bottom more quickly than expected and even rise in the face of negative investor sentiment.
- Canadian manufacturer's which use oil as an input also benefit from the declining oil price and may be in position to increase sales as consumers in other provinces and the U.S. have more discretionary cash to spend, again potentially causing ( EWC ) to bottom more quickly than expected and even rise in the face of negative investor sentiment.
I'm still bearish on ( EWC ) but not as aggressively as I was previously. In fact I think a long ( USD ) short ( CAD ) position may be a better, more direct play to capitalize on the current global macro dynamics.